A stopgap law signed September 2 funds the government through December 11. The House passed it 370 to 48. It keeps many programs at last year’s levels. Surface transportation authority and the National Flood Insurance Program lapse the same day. Health extenders and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program face a second cliff on December 31.

The House has passed three of the 12 regular bills: Agriculture, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and National Security-State. The Senate has passed none.

Analysts at Holland & Knight lay out the paths. Congress can pass most or all of the 12 bills in an omnibus or a few smaller packages. It can pass another stopgap into early 2027. Or it can split the difference, with full-year bills for some agencies and a stopgap for the rest, as it did in November 2025. If none of those passes by December 11, parts of the government shut down on December 12.

The administration asked for $1.5 trillion in national defense spending for fiscal 2027. It split the request: $1.15 trillion through regular appropriations and $350 billion through a reconciliation bill, which needs only a simple majority in the Senate. Senate Democrats reject the total. The central dispute is defense versus nondefense spending.

The annual defense policy bill is also stuck. The House passed its version in July. In the Senate, a vote to begin debate failed to reach the 60 votes required. Congress has passed one every year for 65 years.

Behind both fights is the Iran war. Vice President JD Vance said after the election, “The reason we lost is the war.” The Pentagon put the war’s cost at $45.1 billion in early October (see Issue #27).

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says, “The Department of War must be funded to meet the moment right now.” In June, Under Secretary Emil Michael said the Pentagon might have to cut expensive base-budget programs if the $350 billion reconciliation bill fails. Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), who chairs the Republican Study Committee, backs the idea, and Trump and Hegseth have urged Congress to act. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in June they doubted it would happen.

Majority Leader John Thune said on October 26 that a Democratic win would bring “two years of paralysis.” Analysts at WilmerHale say Republicans may want to lock in a spending deal before the new Congress convenes.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats will deliver for Americans “with or without the president.” House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries’s agenda centers on restoring health care cuts, lowering the cost of living and ending the Iran war. A Democratic House, he said, would be “a Congress that speaks up for everyday Americans.”

Analysts note that a second stopgap would move the real decisions to January, when Democrats gain seats. Most spending bills need 60 Senate votes, and Democrats are projected to hold 54. Trump has the veto. He says he has “the ultimate power — it’s called ‘veto,’” and overriding it takes two-thirds of both chambers. He also told Politico, “We’re going to work with the Democrats.”

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) filed eight articles of impeachment against Hegseth in September. The first accuses Hegseth of waging the Iran war without congressional approval. The House left early, putting off the vote until after the election. Massie reintroduced them Monday. The House must take them up within two legislative days, unless leaders move to table them.

For removal: Massie says Hegseth’s “constitutional violations extend beyond the illegal war in Iran.” Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) says he will be “nonstop and relentless” in seeking Hegseth’s removal. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday he would be a “hard yes” on impeachment.

Against: President Trump said Thursday, “I have every intention to keep him.” Hegseth posted a video calling Massie a “disgruntled, defeated congressman” who filed “sham articles of impeachment.” Asked Monday whether he has the votes to survive, Hegseth said, “We’re not worried about that.” He plans a Pentagon news conference Tuesday morning. Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) declined to back impeachment. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is undecided: “I will weigh the debate and make a decision.”

Impeachment takes a simple House majority. ABC News reports three Republicans voting with all Democrats would be enough, and no Republican has publicly committed to voting yes. Removal takes 67 votes in the Senate. Only two Cabinet secretaries have been impeached: William Belknap in 1876 and Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024. Neither was convicted.

1. Stopgap or omnibus. Whether leaders pass another short-term bill, how long it runs, and whether it carries the farm, health and transportation extensions.

2. The Hegseth vote. Whether the House takes it up before the new Congress, and how many Republicans vote yes.

3. The $350 billion. Whether Republicans move the defense reconciliation bill before January 3.