On September 26, President Trump rejected an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks. “That deal would not be acceptable,” he said. The war that began February 28 is now more than seven months old. The strait is effectively closed, the U.S. Navy is blockading Iranian ports, and gas averages $4.48 a gallon. This issue covers where things stand, what Iran offered and why Trump said no, what the war has cost, and the case each side makes for what comes next.
U.S. and Israeli strikes began February 28. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping, and the United States answered with a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Diplomacy has come close more than once. A two-week ceasefire began April 8. In late May, U.S. officials said Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its highly enriched uranium, and a memorandum followed in June (covered in Issue #12). On July 8, Trump declared the ceasefire over.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth calls the blockade “ironclad” and says Iran has “literally gotten nothing through.” Last week, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Hegseth and CIA Director Ratcliffe met at Camp David on the war. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group and the USS Makin Island amphibious group are headed to the region, which could bring U.S. personnel there to roughly 20,000 by the end of October. The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel over four months, and Brent crude remains above $100.
Iran proposed that it would reopen the strait and begin negotiating a final agreement within seven days if the United States lifted its blockade, waived sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and observed a ceasefire that included Lebanon. Al Jazeera reported the package also included releasing about $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Qatar helped carry messages at the UN General Assembly.
Trump said, “I reject their proposal.” He argued Iran wants a deal because it is “losing so badly.” On October 1 in Texas he said, “Iran is ready to fold up.” He told Time that strikes could resume after the midterms if talks fail. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said Iran defends itself “with dignity and pride” and remains open to dialogue. On September 29, the Revolutionary Guard published a 25-page open letter declaring victory and urging Americans to turn against their government.
The Pentagon has told Congress the war has cost at least $45.1 billion. The core figure, $43.6 billion as of September 3, is $11.2 billion in operating costs and $32.4 billion in unfunded replacement of munitions and aircraft. It leaves out damage to U.S. facilities in eight countries. The Congressional Budget Office put the cost at $38.1 billion through July. The Pentagon has asked Congress for $67.1 billion in supplemental funding.
The Pentagon’s official count is 19 U.S. service members dead, including accidents and other non-combat incidents, and more than 820 wounded. The Washington Post reported that U.S. officials put the death toll at 22 or 23. On September 24, AAA put the national average gas price at $4.48, the highest on record for that time of year.
Supporters call the blockade a different tool from ordinary sanctions. Fred Fleitz, a former chief of staff of Trump’s National Security Council, wrote on September 4 that it “stops tankers.” He estimates Iran’s oil exports have dropped from more than a million barrels a day to near zero, at a cost to Tehran of $300 million to $500 million a day. In his view, the next 60 to 90 days force a choice between negotiating under duress and watching the country collapse.
On that reading, Iran’s offer asks Washington to give up its leverage first and talk afterward. The administration’s position through the spring was that sanctions relief should be “commensurate with the actual delivery” of what the United States asks. In May, Trump sent a draft deal back demanding the strait be “immediately open, no tolls.” Supporters also reject the idea that Congress can hurry the war to an end. Rubio has called the War Powers Act “100 percent unconstitutional,” and House Foreign Affairs Chairman Brian Mast says war powers resolutions “weaken the president’s hands” while negotiations are underway. Some Republicans want more force, not less. In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, 53 percent of Republicans supported a larger military campaign.
Critics start with results. Seven months in, the strait is closed, gas is at record highs for the season, and the blockade has not produced a deal. “Donald Trump took America to war with no plan to win it and no plan to end it,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said on August 28. “Six months is enough.” Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera warn that Trump may be conflating “Iranian pain with Iranian willingness to capitulate,” and that a prolonged disruption could hurt the United States more than Iran as the midterms near.
The constitutional objection comes from both parties. Congress never authorized this war, critics say. Rep. Tom Barrett, a Michigan Republican, put it this way: “Only Congress has the authority to authorize military action in Iran. I remain ready to work with anyone to eliminate hostile threats to our nation without getting us into another endless war.”
On September 16, the House passed an Iran war powers resolution 220 to 204 with seven Republicans in favor: Barrett, Warren Davidson, Brian Fitzpatrick, Nancy Mace, Thomas Massie, Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks. It is a concurrent resolution, which does not carry the force of law. In the Senate, a war powers measure failed 49 to 50 on July 30. Republicans Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul and Susan Collins voted yes, and Democrat John Fetterman voted no. (Earlier votes are covered in Issue #17.)
In the Economist/YouGov poll of September 25 to 28, 30 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the war and 60 percent disapproved. On how to end it, 35 percent supported a deal that lets Iran keep enriched uranium, 31 percent opposed it, and 35 percent were unsure. A larger military campaign drew 24 percent support and 46 percent opposition. Only 19 percent thought Trump could succeed at making a deal, and 32 percent thought he could succeed at “annihilating” Iran.
1. Iran’s formal reply. Iranian officials said they are reviewing Trump’s rejection and preparing a response.
2. The carrier groups, and November 3. The ships could arrive by month’s end. Trump has said the war could end soon after the election, and has also said strikes could resume if talks fail.
3. The money and the next vote. The $67.1 billion supplemental request and any new war powers vote will show how many Republicans are willing to break with the White House before Election Day.
The administration and its critics both want the strait open. They disagree about who should move first, and about whether time favors Washington or Tehran. Each is betting on the answer, and the midterms are 28 days away.
The history behind the mistrust on both sides, from the 1979 embassy takeover forward, by a historian who worked on Iran for the U.S. government. Read it alongside this week’s two cases and decide for yourself.
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