Eleven Days.
New polls show Jared Hudson leading Barry Moore in the Republican Senate runoff. The race nobody had fully predicted is still nobody’s to call.
For most of the primary, Barry Moore had the cleaner story. He had the name recognition, the congressional seat, the Trump endorsement, and a first-place finish on May 19 with nearly 40% of the vote. Jared Hudson, a former Navy SEAL running for office for the first time, finished 14 points behind.
That gap has since closed to the margin of error.
A poll of 600 likely runoff voters conducted May 28 showed Hudson leading 48.7% to 39.2%, the first time he had led in any public survey of the race. A separate survey from Remington Research Group put Hudson at 41% to Moore’s 40%, a difference that falls inside the poll’s plus-or-minus four-point margin of error.
The split behind the numbers is what campaigns are watching. Moore’s support is concentrated among high-turnout Trump Republicans, exactly the voters most likely to show up on a Tuesday in June. Hudson’s coalition skews younger and more moderate, drawing heavily from the Birmingham area where he is based. Whether his voters are as motivated as Moore’s on June 16 is the question neither poll can answer.
Moore still has the endorsement. Hudson’s argument has always been that Washington is broken and sending another congressman won’t fix it. He got to the runoff on that pitch. Now he has to hold it for eleven days.
The Democratic side has its own runoff: attorney Everett Wess and businessman Dakarai Larriett. Wess led the primary at 39.5% to Larriett’s 29.2%. The Democratic nominee faces a long climb in November in a state Donald Trump carried by a wide margin in 2024.
June 16. Eleven days.
Sources: Alabama Reflector · AL Reporter · Alabama Daily News · Remington Research Group