Democrats need 218 House seats for a majority. In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. Republicans keep control with 50, because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties. Two of the 35 Senate races are special elections, in Ohio and Florida. Governors are up in 36 states. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and Democrats 24.

Several states drew new House maps in this cycle, including Texas, California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama and Utah. In a June estimate, the National Conference of State Legislatures put the possible gain at up to 17 seats for Republicans and up to six for Democrats.

According to Fox News, the 145 ballot measures include voter ID or noncitizen voting bans in 11 states and abortion measures in Missouri, Idaho, Virginia and Nevada. California’s Proposition 40 would levy a one-time 5% tax on residents worth more than $1 billion. Washington voters will decide whether to repeal a 9.9% tax on income over $1 million. Maryland, Missouri and Colorado have congressional redistricting measures.

According to News9, the Cook Political Report said on October 23 that Democrats are favored outright to win the House. It projects 12 to 22 Democratic pickups, or 227 to 237 seats. News9 also reports that Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 79% chance in the House and 57% in the Senate on October 26, which leaves Republicans 21% and 43%. Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan and Texas are toss-ups on both Cook’s and Fox News’s Senate lists. Cook also lists Ohio and Kansas as toss-ups, while Fox rates Ohio lean Democratic and Kansas lean Republican.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed October 26 put President Trump’s approval at 32%. On the generic ballot, registered voters split 47% Democratic and 36% Republican. Among likely voters it was 53% to 44%. Forty-six percent of Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about the midterms, against 30% of Republicans. Seventy-three percent of voters said the cost of living is heading in the wrong direction. On the economy, 37% said Democrats have the better approach and 33% said Republicans. Republicans led on that question before the Iran war. Forecasts are probabilities. The votes settle it.

RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said in July that voters should stick with President Trump and the Republican agenda, and he pointed to immigration enforcement and tax cuts. He said Democrats are too extreme, pointing to primary wins by democratic socialist candidates. He acknowledged the Iran war is a tough sell, called it “a little bit of short-term pain for long-term gain,” and blamed economic strain on Biden-era policies.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on October 26 that the election is “a clear choice.” If Democrats win, he said, “you’re going to have two years of paralysis.” Of Iowa’s Ashley Hinson, he said: “she flat has to win, and if she doesn’t, we’re not going to be in the majority.”

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries launched an agenda in July called “Fighting for an Affordable America.” It centers on restoring health care cuts, lowering the cost of living and ending the Iran war. A Democratic House, he said, would be “a Congress that speaks up for everyday Americans.”

1. Find your polling place and hours through your state or local election office. Hours differ by state.

2. Bring ID. Thirty-six states require ID at the polls. Twenty-four require photo ID and 12 do not explicitly require a photo. Fourteen states generally do not require it (Ballotpedia, as of October). Fifteen states let some or all voters sign an affidavit instead. Forty-one offer provisional ballots to voters without ID.

3. Stay in line. Election Protection says anyone in line when the polls close may vote.

4. If you are not on the roll, do not leave. Confirm your registration and polling place, then ask for a provisional ballot. Get written instructions and a number to check whether it counted.

5. If your mail ballot is still in hand, skip the mailbox. USPS advises mailing at least a week before the deadline, and a postmark may not match the mailing date. Use a drop box or deliver it to the election office. Check whether your state needs the ballot received or only postmarked by today. A retail counter can apply a manual postmark free of charge on request.

6. Fix envelope errors fast. Some states close the window to correct them on Election Day. Check your state’s ballot tracker.

7. Report problems to your state or local election office or to Election Protection at 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683). If a machine shows a different candidate than the one you picked, tell a poll worker before you cast the ballot.

Federal monitors. The Justice Department is sending about 1,000 monitors to all 50 states. In 2022 it sent monitors to 64 jurisdictions in 24 states. DOJ spokesperson Kiersten Pels said monitors will “merely observe and report” and any review will come after Election Day. Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, a Republican, said DOJ assured her monitors would not approach voters or wear insignia. Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, said her office will watch the monitors closely. Given more than 95,000 polling places in 2024, Harry Black of the Brennan Center said the number is too small to matter nationally. DOJ will release the full list of locations today.

The Postal Service mail-ballot rule. The rule would require barcoded envelopes and a voter-data portal. Trump directed the Postal Service to set election-mail standards, and it finalized them in late August. A Boston federal judge issued a nationwide preliminary injunction against the rule. A D.C. federal judge, Carl Nichols, cited the “extremely short timeframe” before the election and blocked it too. On September 14 the Supreme Court refused the administration’s emergency request. Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas dissented. Alito wrote that the Postal Service has broad authority over mail and that a reversal would come too late for the midterms. Justice Brett Kavanaugh agreed with the outcome but wrote there is “at least a fair prospect” the rule falls within the Postal Service’s authority. The rule does not apply to this election.

California ballots. DOJ says up to 20,000 mail ballots in California and Los Angeles County are tied to likely noncitizens, and it sued to stop officials from counting them. Its letters asked counties to “identify who on the accompanying list is a citizen and who is not,” and warned that officials who knowingly count noncitizen ballots could face criminal liability. California officials dispute the lists. Santa Cruz County said most of its 81 names were canceled or inactive voters, and Los Angeles County Clerk Dean Logan called the demand “a posture of intimidation and threats.” On October 27, Federal Judge David Carter ruled that the demands violated the National Voter Registration Act’s limit on changes within 90 days of an election. DOJ appealed to the Ninth Circuit. Carter will hold an evidentiary hearing November 13.

Late-arriving ballots. On June 29 the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that federal law does not bar states from counting mail ballots that arrive after Election Day, if they were cast by Election Day. Justice Amy Coney Barrett wrote for the majority that “the electorate’s choice is made when voting is complete, not when ballots are received.” Justice Alito dissented, joined by Justices Thomas and Gorsuch, and Justice Kavanaugh joined part of the dissent. States with such rules include California, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Texas and Washington.

All times Eastern. At 6 p.m., parts of Kentucky and Indiana close. At 7 p.m., Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont and most of Florida close. North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia close at 7:30. At 8 p.m., Pennsylvania, Alabama, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee and many others close, along with most of Michigan and Texas. At 9 p.m., Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York and Wisconsin close. California and Washington close at 11 p.m. Most of Alaska closes at midnight and the last polls at 1 a.m.

NPR reports that outlets call a race once analysts are confident, not when every ballot is counted. Close races in slow states take longest. California counts slowly, and some counties receive as many as half their mail ballots on Election Day. Alaska was the last state in 2024 to count 95% of its ballots, and its House race was not called until November 20.

1. Kentucky’s 6th District. Trump won it by 15 points in 2024, and its polls close early. A close result there would point toward a strong Democratic night. A comfortable Republican win would point the other way.

2. Iowa and Ohio. Thune called Iowa pivotal. Ohio pits Sen. Jon Husted against former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a race Cook rates a toss-up and Fox rates lean Democratic.

3. The courts and the calendar. Judge Carter’s hearing is November 13, and the Ninth Circuit appeal is pending. Senate Republicans hold a secret-ballot leadership vote a week after the election.